PT Geoff Forrester Indonesia - Geoff Forrester Asia & Associates Pty Ltd

Interim Indonesia Update

Gus Dur Wins

Summary

In yet another cliffhanging vote today, Gus Dur defeated Megawati 373 to 313, with 5 abstentions.

His victory followed the withdrawal of both Habibie and Akbar Tanjung from the presidential race before the session began. In an emotional moment, the modernist Muslim candidate, Yusril Mahendra, withdrew as the voting was beginning “in the interests of Muslim unity.”

The key to Gus Dur’s victory was the support of TNI. This gave him an ultimately commanding lead over Megawati and the required absolute majority.

The vote was tense and tumultuous. The result was greeted with euphoria. Tonight, however, delegates were more restrained, as their president’s infirmities were all too obvious. From the MPR we could hear the warning shots and the firing of tear gas canisters at nearby Semanggi.

A Muslim Victory

Gus Dur was today elected President in a vote of 373 to 313 with 5 abstentions. Early in the count, Megawati was, at times, forty votes in front of Gus Dur. He slowly caught up and towards the end of the count, pulled out well ahead of Megawati. The MPR hall noisy and tense throughout, with Megawati and Gus Dur supporters in the Gallery cheering each vote for their leader.

As Gus Dur neared 346 votes, the figure necessary to win an absolute majority, Muslims broke out in the Muslim song “Salatullah, Salamullah”. As Gus Dur went well beyond 346, Muslim supporters prayed and broke into tears and cheers.

Megawati was devastated by her defeat. She went down to congratulate Gus Dur, and made a short, ambiguous speech which seemed to urge her supporters to accept the verdict. The Hall burst into the national anthem, but Megawati could not sing it. This was a day for the Muslims.

Once Habibie was eliminated from the presidential race in last night’s vote on his Accountability Speech, the task for Megawati grew more ominous. In a ballot between Habibie and Megawati, some reformist Muslims would have voted for Megawati in preference to the problematic Habibie. Gus Dur, as a clean candidate, could gather more support than Habibie. As I said this morning, in a ballot with Gus Dur, Megawati therefore needed the votes of both TNI and 75 ‘white’ Golkar to win.

Although the secret ballot masks what actually happened, about 80 ‘White’ Golkar probably did vote for Megawati. TNI almost certainly voted as a bloc for Gus Dur. Without TNI, she was lost.

Also contributing to her loss was the solid Muslim Central Axis vote for Gus Dur. Almost 100 Muslim Golkar, for example, must have voted with Gus Dur.

On 6 October, I wrote:

“Out of this confusion, most expect Megawati to emerge the victor. That could still happen. But new, deep forces are making themselves felt in the MPR and Muslims could coalesce around a ‘Muslim’ alternative. That alternative could be Gus Dur, whom I dismissed as a player in future Indonesian politics after seeing him in hospital in January 1998. He was seriously ill, recovering only slowly from brain surgery after a stroke. He was a diabetic and almost completely blind.

Tonight Gus Dur has confirmed that he is travelling with Megawati tomorrow on a pilgrimage to the grave of Megawati’s father in Blitar. Which proves anything can happen in Indonesian politics.”

Today, Gus Dur proved the new power of Islam in democratic Indonesia.
President Abdurrahman Wahid

At 7 pm this evening, Gus Dur was sworn in as President in the briefest and most perfunctory ceremony of its kind in 35 years.

There was no major policy speech, just a few, off-the-cuff remarks. His main focus in the speech was external threats, and included a barely concealed reference to Australia “aggression” against Indonesia.

Gus Dur’s blindness is a major impediment. He tried to hide it tonight by pretending to read the oath of office while an adjutant audibly whispered the words to him. He could not deliver a comprehensive and detailed policy speech because he cannot read.

There was no euphoria tonight. The delegates were quiet and subdued. It was as if they were suddenly aware of the realities of the choice they had made in the morning. Gus Dur is a wily politician and a charismatic, feudal Muslim leader, but he does not have the skills to lead a huge country with enormous social, economic and security as well as political problems.

The Vice-President

No one could be confident that Gus Dur could win until Habibie was defeated last night and withdrew from the race this morning. Gus Dur is not therefore adequately prepared to protect his interests in tomorrow’s vote on the vice-president. If Gus Dur cannot direct and control the election tomorrow, he could find himself with a potentially hostile vice-president. Once the vice-president is elected, I will prepare an assessment of the Gus Dur presidency.

20 October 1999