A Jakarta Diary, May 1998

“A Jakarta diary, May 1998” is a contemporary account of the tumultuous events surrounding the resignation of president Soeharto on 21 May. With the exception of the first entry of 14 May, the diary was written entirely in Jakarta, often on the very day of the events described. Because it describes events day by day, inevitably the diary reflects the uncertainties, emotions and shifting fortunes of this period. It is reproduced here as it was written. Where necessary, corrections to or commentary on the original text are contained in footnotes.

Canberra, 14 May 1998

On 12 May, the inevitable occurred. Troops shot six¹ students inside the campus of Trisakti University in Central Jakarta beside the tollway to Jakarta Airport. There is a strong possibility that the troops who killed the students were acting independently of the military leadership and were seeking to provoke an incident.

Whatever the origins of the incident, it has unleashed a wave of popular grief and anger. Key roads across Jakarta are closed tonight as troops try to regain control of the city.

Two days of looting by ordinary Indonesians have followed the death of the six students. Buildings in the Chinese districts of Glodok and Ancol are on fire tonight. Similar violence has occurred in other major cities.

The president has cut short his visit to Egypt and will be back in the capital tomorrow, Friday. In Egypt he has suggested that he will stand down if he has lost the support of the people.

The jockeying for power in the post-Soeharto era has begun. Opposition figures like Megawati Soekarnoputri and Amien Rais are advancing their interests by openly associating with the students. The military is more likely to produce a successor to Soeharto. At this stage, however, it is premature to speculate about specific options for the next president.

The rapid deterioration in Soeharto’s political control is a direct result of his decision to implement the price increases mandated by the IMF. The government is likely to reverse or moderate the increases, but this is unlikely to save Soeharto.
Once again, IMF intervention has provoked sweeping change, but it will not restore the economy and permit political rejuvenation. There is no consensus on the future shape of government and the leadership. The prospects now are for sustained political and economic crisis.

Jakarta, 15 May 1998

I arrived at Jakarta Airport at 3 pm, notwithstanding Qantas suggestions that, at the last moment, the flight might not land but instead go directly to Singapore. As we flew in I could see fires in Glodok, Tangerang and Mangga Dua, the last a kilometer from the apartment where I live.

The arrival hall was almost deserted. Only twenty passengers left QF 41 and there seemed to be no other flights arriving. Outside the terminal there were no Bluebird or Silver Bird taxis, only older taxis. The drivers drove a hard bargain, arguing that they had risked a lot to come out to the airport.

There were few vehicles on the tollway into the city. The toll booths were all unoccupied. In South Jakarta tollbooths had been burnt down.

As we left the tollway and approached Jalan Gunung Sahari, the main road leading to my apartment building, the situation worsened dramatically. The road was blocked by the Navy, but I was allowed to pass. On the right a three storey electronics mall in Jalan Magga Dua was on fire. Forty or so heavily armed Army troops blocked off the entrance to Jalan Mangga Dua.
From this point, there were burnt cars along Gunung Sahari, and the shops near the railway crossing had been broken into. Glass windows on offices and banks were smashed. Glass and other rubbish covered the road.

As we turned into my street, the first thing I noticed was that every house had a national flag flying at half-mast. The road was worse than ever. Rocks had been gouged out to use in smashing windows in the district. Potholes had become craters. In this strongly Chinese district, some house walls had ‘Muslim’ painted on them in order to warn off looters seeking out Chinese property.

The apartment building is a Chinese Alamo. The entrance is blocked by two big boards announcing ‘We too grieve for the deaths of the reform heroes’, ‘Reform Yes’ and ‘We care about the fate of the little people’. Fire hoses lie about fully extended, ready to repel looters. The building guards are now in civilian clothes. During the day seventy Chinese residents joined the guards at the entrance, armed with batons, ready to fight off looters. Less than a kilometer away, looters were destroying shopping malls.

The news tonight has focused on the death toll today in Jakarta shopping malls, as fires trapped looters. On television news, key non-governmentt figures – Megawati, Amien Rais, Gus Dur – urged calm and an end to the looting and violence in the streets.

The government took steps today to neutralize the immediate cause of this dramatic crisis – steep increases on 5 May in electricity and petrol prices. Prices were reduced today; not down to pre-increase prices, but nevertheless a significant reduction. The announcement has been welcomed.

The late news tonight suggests that Soeharto is working to stay on. He is reported as saying in a meeting today of key ministers that, if the people no longer want him, his stepping down must be on the basis only of constitutional procedures. And his Armed Forces commanders and ministers seem to be falling into line. A fall in tensions in the next few days could strengthen his position.

Tonight, however, it seems that there has been serious violence in Javanese cities like Solo and Yogya² as well as the capital.

Jakarta, 16 May 1998

Jakarta began to return to something approaching normal from about noon. Cars and buses began to appear gingerly on the streets, as if blood was trickling back into the arteries and veins of the city.

Not all is normal. In the district in which I live, the glass and other debris from the destruction of the last two days is still strewn on the streets. Buildings still display signs announcing ‘Milik Pribumi’ or ‘Milik Muslim ‘ – owned by non-Chinese. The ‘golden arches’ of the MacDonald’s on the main thoroughfare of Jalan Thamrin were covered today.

Shops not broken into are still closed. No markets operated today, and supermarkets are all closed. For the first time, Central Jakarta is not lit up. The dome of the Istiqlal Mosque is dark. The gold-tipped spire of the National Monument stands out tonight against the relative darkness of the city.

Today’s calm reflects the heavy presence of the Armed Forces in the city, and the clear message that the Armed Forces will be tough on looters. There are tanks at the Hotel Indonesia circle and in Senen. Footage of the Jakarta commander admonishing tattooed young looters in detention has been shown several times today.

The calm also reflects the sobering effect of the knowledge that 500 died yesterday in the fires. Footage of their charred remains has also appeared regularly on television.

Food will become a problem for me if shops and markets do not open by Tuesday. When they do open, they will be rushed by Indonesians short of food and concerned that rumoured big demonstrations on 20 May will plunge the city back into chaos. Today’s calm is unlikely to last.

It is difficult to discern any clear political direction in the current confusion. Soeharto continues to attempt to take up the reins of government. He received the leadership of the parliament today and announced that he would shortly reshuffle his cabinet.
The minister for Defence and commander of the Armed Forces, General Wiranto, has emerged as a firm, decisive figure in the crisis. He has frankly acknowledged that the soldiers responsible for the death of the six students on 12 May – now ‘Reform Heroes’ – used live ammunition, contrary to procedures. Over the last two days his coolness and firmness in the heat of the crisis has not translated into any inclination to assume greater control and responsibility. In the presence of Soeharto he still behaves as a subordinate.

No one in the elite is yet prepared to push the president out. The sense is developing that another wave of political demonstrations – as distinct from looting – is necessary to force Soeharto out. Without it he may survive.

Jakarta, 17 May 1998

The day began very early. At 1 am I was wakened by the sounds of pots and pans being beaten down on the street. Next, someone was knocking on the doors of the apartments on my floor and calling on us to come down to the front of the building to guard it.

I dressed and went to the elevator. As I waited for an elevator, a flustered young woman rushed from her apartment. She was carrying a bag of necessities; ‘Just in case I have to leave’, she said.

Downstairs on the street, the whole district seemed to be awake. Each man had a bamboo or steel pole. It was rumoured that the district was about to be attacked by looters. My fellow residents, mainly Chinese, were ready to fight.

A young man on the barricade blocking the entrance to the apartment building told me that it had been a false alarm. What had been feared as a truck of looters had only been a local vehicle. The whole district, however, was ready. What would have happened if there had been looters? Probably a bloody fight.

In the morning, my first priority was to get sufficient food to last two weeks if necessary. The local market opened today but we also need supermarket products and supermarkets in this district were closed today. So we went searching. We found one supermarket open in the main shopping district of Kebayoran Baru, far from home but still open. Hundreds were shopping, and buying extraordinary amounts. The Jakarta middle class clearly fears that the crisis is by no means over. At 1 pm, as we queued to pay, I noticed that there were now queues to get into the supermarket.

We queued for three hours before we could pay and be on our way. Shelves were emptying steadily. Fresh meat was finished. Milk powder was almost gone when we left. What if supplies cannot be replenished? At least we are OK for food for the time being. The next problem: no diesel for the car in the central and northern part of the city.

Soeharto continued today to attempt to reassert personal control and create the impression of normalcy. The Armed Forces have been prominent on the streets in order to be seen to be guaranteeing order. Armed soldiers guarded the cash register area in the supermarket today. Tanks and armoured personnel stood at the entrances to five-star hotels and at key intersections. Banks are being pressed to re-open tomorrow to create a sense of normalcy and enable people to replenish cash supplies. If banks do re-open, there will be a run on cash.

Soeharto’s political focus is General Wiranto, the minister for Defence and commander of the Armed Forces. He is attempting to make Wiranto bear the blame for the deaths at Trisakti University on 12 May. Soeharto wants to remove him from the position of commander of the Armed Forces. If he loses only this position, he will still be minister for Defence, but there are suggestions that Wiranto may lose the Defence ministry too. The ‘good guy’ will be made to bear responsibility for the killings.

Can it work? My best assessment in these very difficult circumstances is that neither the Armed Forces leadership nor the government elite will stand up to Soeharto this time. Although there are many indications of unhappiness in the Armed Forces and the government party, Golkar, the government elite will let Wiranto fall and they will remain silent. Soeharto’s power still dominates this generation of military and civilian leaders. Even opposition figures like Amien Rais and Megawati Soekarnoputri are not generating any effective opposition to Soeharto. I spoke briefly to Megawati while she was taking tea today at a Jakarta hotel. She seemed a world away from the tumultuous events unfolding in the capital.

The toughest opposition to Soeharto will come from neither government nor opposition elites. It is brewing right now among a new generation of young political unknowns in the capital and other cities of Java. They are largely uncoordinated but the increasingly huge crowds they can mobilize do pose a serious threat to Soeharto. They have maintained and nurtured the student unrest from its modest beginnings in February until it has become a nationwide movement capable of shaking the foundations of the New Order.

The political protests of this new generation of activists have in turn sparked the savage popular looting, reflecting both popular anger and greed. Political idealism and the urge to seize the goods of the wealthy are a potent mix. I drove yesterday past the house of Liem Sioe Liong, one of the wealthiest men in the world. It is a kilometer from my apartment building. It is now a charred shell, and so intense were the flames that the leaves on the trees in the street outside the compound have been burnt.

Over the next few days these new political leaders will move back onto the streets. A big march from the Salemba campus of the University of Indonesia is planned for tomorrow, Monday 18 May. Planned demonstrations on 20 May are assuming an awesome scale in the minds of people in the capital.

Soeharto’s removal of Wiranto will fuel popular anger and give these leaders a new cause. Their ‘movement’ now has sufficient impetus ultimately to unseat Soeharto. Some in the elite may see this and join the burgeoning movement. Some may yet find the courage to persuade Soeharto to step down before his obduracy sweeps them away. But most, if not all, are unable to move against him at this stage.

As I thought last night, it will take more than total economic collapse and the four days of anarchy since 12 May to unseat Soeharto. Soeharto is throwing down the challenge to those who want him removed. The elite will continue to prevaricate, but the swelling popular movement will take up the challenge. We seem certain to see more street violence and anarchy in the coming week. Jakartans are preparing for it.

Jakarta, 18 May 1998

Two immovable forces – Soeharto and his opponents – today started rushing towards a fatal impact in the next seventy-two hours.

Soeharto’s political manoeuvering dominated events in the early part of the day as he sought to hang on to power. As the day began, Soeharto was planning to dismiss the commander of the Armed Forces, General Wiranto, as part of his planned cabinet reshuffle to be announced tomorrow. It was not yet clear whether Wiranto would keep his position of minister of Defence. The plan was that Wiranto would be replaced by the present chief of staff of the Army, General Subagyo. He would not be a strong, independent figure. (At the height of last week’s disturbances, on 12 May, he was in Hong Kong following his favourite activity, badminton.)

The most significant moves planned by Soeharto were the appointment of his son-in-law, Lieutenant General Prabowo, to the position of deputy commander of the Armed Forces and the appointment of Major General Sjafrie Sjamsuddin, as Prabowo’s successor as commander of the Army Strategic Reserve. Sjafrie is a confidant of Prabowo and close to Soeharto, whom he served as an adjutant.

There has not been a deputy commander of the Armed Forces for some time, and Prabowo’s appointment to the position at this time would have suggested that Soeharto wanted him to be the de facto commander but without the formal power.
The proposed dismissal of Wiranto was a response by Soeharto to the threat of Armed Forces support for a special session of the People’s Consultative Assembly (Majelis Permuyawaratan Rakyat, MPR) to replace Soeharto. The head of the Armed Forces faction in the parliament had been working towards consensus on a special session. Wiranto was critical to the proposal proceeding against the opposition of the government party, Golkar, still under the control of the president’s daughter, Tutut. There was also an element of defiance of his critics in Soeharto’s plan to dismiss Wiranto.

As the day continued, the certainty of Wiranto’s dismissal receded and a new element began to emerge. The elite decided today that enough was enough; that the country and economy could not pay the mounting price of a Soeharto presidency, and that he had to go. One element in this change of heart was the signal that Soeharto planned to dismiss Wiranto, who had won wide respect in the riots. Another element was the plan to promote Prabowo, who is widely believed to have been implicated in the deaths of the students on 12 May. Related to this is concern about the costs of a deep split in the Armed Forces.

Yet another element was the fear of another return to anarchy posed by the mass demonstrations threatened for Wednesday. Indeed, the extraordinary speed of events reflects the concern to settle matters before Wednesday.

The first sign of open defiance was the permission given by the leadership of parliament for parliament to be used today as the site for an anti-Soeharto student demonstration. The demonstration coincided with testimony to a parliamentary committee by the head of the Muhammadiyah organization, Amien Rais. The students were escorted by academic leaders and former military officers, including Edi Sudradjat, who was minister of Defence until March 1998.

Late in the afternoon, the speaker of parliament made a stunning announcement. He said that the leadership of parliament had decided today to consult tomorrow with the internal and external leadership of the four factions in parliament with a view to formulating a request to Soeharto to resign.

Thus a very senior figure of the political elite is now publicly using the ‘r’ word. The journalists covering Harmoko’s press conference cheered. The 7 o’clock coverage on state TV included the cheering! Also, Amien Rais appeared on state TV calling for calm – as if he were already president.

At nine o’clock tonight, there has been another extraordinary development. Wiranto has given a press conference in which he has called the actions of the leadership of parliament unconstitutional. Only a plenary session of parliament can call on the president to resign. Most significantly, he has insisted that the anticipated demonstrations not take place on Wednesday and has committed the Armed Forces (ABRI) to acting firmly against unrest.

Instead, Wiranto has called for a Cabinet reshuffle and a comprehensive commitment to reform. He has urged the formation of a Reform Council, comprising academics and opposition figures, to advance reform.

It was Soeharto, not Wiranto, speaking.

Wiranto’s statement tonight has taken everyone by surprise. It came after a late evening meeting at the president’s home, which included: Wiranto; the minister for Internal Affairs, Hartono; coordinating minister for Economics and Finance, Ginandjar; and the state secretary, Saadillah Mursjid. It leaves me wondering whether a deal has been done with Wiranto to maintain Soeharto in office for the time being at least, with Wiranto remaining untouched.

Before I heard Wiranto at nine o’clock, I wrote the following assessment, which was on balance optimistic about the immediate future:

Now, with Wiranto aligned with and supporting Soeharto, the immediate prospects are disturbing. A friend, a young Indonesian professional, has just rushed off to talk to his friends about Wiranto’s announcement. His reaction: ‘ABRI is now opposed to the people’. At seven o’clock he was euphoric. Soeharto was on the way out. Now he is disappointed and angry.

Wiranto’s cold injunction tonight not to demonstrate on Wednesday tells me that he will use force. The students and the people’s movement coalescing around them will not stop. There will be clashes and bloodshed.

In a day of extraordinary fluctuations in fortunes, Soeharto is on top tonight, but the contest between Soeharto and his opponents is by no means over. The two immovable forces – Soeharto and his opponents – are still rushing towards a fatal impact.

Jakarta, 19 May 1998, 1200 hours

Soeharto is stepping down. He has just finished a statement announcing a process to quickly develop new election laws, new political party laws and a new structure for parliament and for the MPR, which elects the president. There will be parliamentary elections in the very near future (Gus Dur says in two months). The new MPR elected in these elections will elect a new president and vice president. Soeharto will not stand again. He will be president in the interim, ‘consistent with an orderly transition and the 1945 Constitution’.

It’s over. I am going out now to the parliament where there are thousands of jubilant students.

Jakarta, 19 May 1998, 2300 hours

Opinions are sharply divided tonight about the meaning of Soeharto’s statement late this morning that he would step down after fresh elections. The division of opinion is summed up in two headlines in the afternoon newspapers. One reads, ‘Soeharto Not Retiring’, the other ‘Elections ASAP’.

This division of opinion reflects the deep mistrust among Indonesians of Soeharto and New Order politics. Even though there is ample evidence that Soeharto is committed to the transition he outlined this morning, there is a fear that he will have a change of heart if normalcy is restored. Even though he has said that he will not stand again, there is suspicion that he is just playing for time.

These fears are heightened by the absence of details about the timetable for and nature of the proposed political reform, the new parliamentary elections and the new presidential elections.

Questions which arise include whether politicians like Megawati Soekarnoputri, excluded from the last election, can be candidates in the fresh election. Will there be more than the present three parties contesting the next election? Will the existing province-wide proportional representation system persist, or will a district representational system be used for the first time?

To give Indonesia the basis of a genuinely representative political system will take time. Could the reform process take too long?

Timing is in fact a fundamental issue. The Minister for the Environment, Juwono Sudarsono, generated anxiety today by suggesting that the elections could be almost two years away. In fact, parliamentary elections could take place in six months.

This afternoon, thousands of students continued the occupation of the Parliament buildings. The atmosphere was exultant, the scenes breathtaking. In twenty-five years, I had seen nothing like it in these precincts. The students filled the courtyard of the Parliament, lined the balconies, and covered much of the roof of the main building. Their banners hung everywhere. At one stage a sea of yellow, blue and green jackets covered the whole of the huge ceremonial stairway into the Meeting Hall. Later, a long line of girls in Muslim head-covers demurely paraded onto the stairway for photographs. The students were jubilant that they had substantially dented Soeharto’s power, but were still determined to topple him immediately.

Group after group demanded the immediate resignation of Soeharto, the seizure of the president’s family’s wealth, and the bringing to trial of Soeharto and his cronies. They joked about this week’s ‘disappearances’ – the invisibility of Soeharto’s children, including his daughter, Tutut, the minister for Social Affairs.

The student demands for the president’s immediate resignation reflect the political naivete of a society denied genuine politics for two generations. They have a limited understanding of the 1945 Constitution, which will guide the transition. The Constitution provides that vice president Habibie would become president if Soeharto stood down, but they certainly do not want this. (Soeharto’s own proposals this morning assume that Habibie will not survive the transition.)

The students sometimes call for the establishment of an interim administration representing all points of view. It is both unconstitutional and unworkable. While deeply suspicious of his wiliness, several students today agreed reluctantly that Soeharto had to stay on temporarily to allow a peaceful transition. The critical question is how long is the transition.

A new consensus is now being hammered out to build the greatest possible constituency for the president’s proposals.

The commander of the Armed Forces, Wiranto, is clearly committed to the transition outlined this morning by Soeharto. His surprising statement last night, calling for the cancellation of Wednesday’s demonstrations, can now be seen as part of this closing of the elite’s ranks to achieve a peaceful transition on terms set by the elite, not by their radical opponents.

In another step in closing ranks, the leadership of parliament tonight amended its call of yesterday for Soeharto to stand down. It has accepted the president’s case for an orderly transition and said that his resignation must be in accordance with the 1945 Constitution. Wiranto and the speaker of parliament, Harmoko, are now widely despised by the students because they are seen as having sold out to Soeharto.

Nine Muslim religious leaders met Soeharto for over two hours this morning before he announced his decision. They included highly respected religious figures like Gus Dur, head of the Nahdlatul Ulama, and Nurcholis Madjid. Neither is a lackey of the regime. Both spoke immediately after Soeharto’s statement of their positive reaction to it as a compromise and the best way out for the country. Nurcholis Madjid insisted that the president was ‘very well intentioned’.

The president is now in an extremely weak position. If he goes back on today’s commitment, the response from the political and business elite as well as students and opposition figures will be savage. Tonight, the Indonesian political scene has shifted irrevocably, and Soeharto cannot go back this time. This is the last chance for a peaceful transition. As I see it, the president has accepted the need to go, and will.

The next few days are critical to a peaceful transition. Much can go wrong to upset this extremely fragile opening. Student excesses in the next few days could draw a savage response.

Amien Rais is the only prominent national figure opposing the president’s proposals. He said tonight that he will ‘fight on and on and on’. Students are planning a demonstration tomorrow at the National Monument in central Jakarta, in which he is supposed to be involved. The military could overreact. Tonight the military is blocking off the area of the National Monument.

Individuals like Lieutenant General Prabowo, who could lose everything with the departure of Soeharto, will also try to undermine the transition. Already today, Prabowo seems to have sent to the Parliament a group of government ‘Pancasila Youth’ thugs protected by his Kostrad troops, with the aim of creating disturbances.

Alternatively, military tolerance could see the student zeal decline steadily in the face of a solidifying consensus within the elite. Some flesh on the bare bones of the transition to be outlined tomorrow would increase confidence that Soeharto is genuine and win over increasing numbers of students. To win this kind of support, the government must move quickly. I’m not sure it has the political skills and experience to respond effectively in a short space of time.

If the concept of a peaceful transition does not gain ground in the next few days, then the prospects are for chronic political and economic crisis and further upheaval.

Jakarta, 20 May 1998

It has been extraordinarily hard to assess events over the past few days. There have been rapid changes of fortune and direction. There has been great confusion and, sometimes, fear. Tonight, the situation remains quite unclear, as Soeharto’s grip on power loosens and the number of individuals seeking to ride the wave of change multiplies.

This morning the heart of Jakarta was empty. It was impossible to get anywhere near Merdeka Square where the National Monument stands. A series of military blockades manned by heavily armed soldiers stopped access into the Merdeka Square area a kilometer from the Square itself.

At 6 am Amien Rais, at that time the last prominent figure openly opposing Soeharto’s transition plan, appeared on TV with a soldier in the background to announce that he had cancelled today’s mass procession to the National Monument. He feared heavy loss of life if a mass confrontation occurred with the soldiers now guarding the Square.

I had planned to go to Merdeka Square, but knew from last night, after seeing the military’s preparations, that I was unlikely to make it. I decided therefore to go back to the Parliament building.

I was not alone in this decision. The road and tollway at the front entrance of the Parliament were already blocked, cutting off one of the main roads not already blocked by the military. We headed instead towards the back entrance. As we approached the area of the rear entrance to the Parliament building, we came across truckloads of students heading in the same direction. Heavily armed soldiers directed us and the students away from the entrance to the Parliament.

We eventually walked to the back entrance to the Parliament. Truckloads of students were in the street. The atmosphere was tense as we queued to enter. Students again today controlled access to the precincts of Parliament. A few Kostrad soldiers were present, but played no role.

Inside, Parliament was still occupied by the students. The numbers grew during the day to exceed the numbers of yesterday. It is hard to assess the numbers, but others were talking about 50,000. There were emotional scenes. At one point, the students sang in memory of the dead students. Suddenly, they were all focused on commemorating their dead colleagues. They all stood still and straight and sang. One group of students hung an effigy of Soeharto. The horde of camera crews descended on them with cameras running.

The anti-Soeharto mood of the students has hardened. Their ‘free speech forum’ rang out all morning with different speakers calling out, ‘Down with Harto!’ Their mood was summed up in two new banners:

Anti-Soeharto pamphlets littered the courtyard and buildings. They read:

Several Opposition figures arrived to address the students. They included Emil Salim, who was briefly an alternative candidate for president in March 1998; Adnan Buyung Nasution, a human rights lawyer and hero of the 1966 students’ movement, gaoled by the regime; and Permadi, a famous mystic and astrologer, also gaoled by the regime. Six judges dressed in their robes addressed the students.

Amien Rais spoke calling on the students to continue the struggle.

We walked to the front entrance of the Parliament where some very tired Kostrad soldiers directed the hundreds wanting to get into the precincts through the gates to the students controlling entry. Outside thousands blocked the road and tollway.

A genuine people’s movement has been spawned. It comprises mainly students at the moment, with opposition figures giving support and seeking to ride the wave. The tight military cordon around the heart of the city must go at some time if the city centre is not to collapse completely. Already one main road towards the Hotel Indonesia Circle has been opened tonight, but it is still some way from Merdeka Square.

When main roads are reopened, will the students move out from Parliament? Will they be joined by thousands of citizens? Will the looting start again?

Tonight at 6 pm, there was another extraordinary turn of events. While the students and we were outside, the Golkar members of parliament were inside debating options for the future. In a highly fluid situation, they announced tonight that, in a vote after considering five options, the faction had decided to call for a special session of the MPR to elect a new president and vice president. Parliament will meet in plenary session to formally mandate the special session.

In a measure to save face for the president, Soeharto will not be required to make an accountability statement. He will simply stand down and the special session will choose a new president and vice president.

Early in the 7 pm news, state TV said that the special session would take place on 8 June – Soeharto’s birthday. Later in the broadcast it was announced that 8 June was an error and that the date was still under discussion. Too much of a slap in the face for the president?

The other factions have also been meeting. So far only the Muslim PPP faction has announced support for the position of the Golkar members of parliament. The key Armed Forces faction has not yet reached a decision.

The motives of Golkar are clear enough. The comprehensive reform of political structures outlined in the Soeharto transition plan would see most present parliamentarians lose their jobs. A special session means the present parliament is untouched and they keep their jobs.

In a separate act of political opportunism, the speaker of parliament, Harmoko, tonight said that the MPR would dismiss Soeharto if he did not resign by Friday. The Harmoko approach seeks to benefit vice president Habibie who does not figure in any of the other scenarios.

The government failed today to make any progress with explaining and developing its transition plan. The state secretary announced only that the core membership of the Reform Council would be announced tomorrow. There was no word of the cabinet reshuffle. This failure has let the initiative fall again from Soeharto’s hands. The initiative has shifted to the students and the political parties.

There is so much confusion and uncertainty tonight. A quick end to Soeharto is looming, without a clear sense of when and how it will happen or what will take its place. The Soeharto plan, with its promise of a solid foundation to future political life, is languishing.

Tonight at 9 pm, more of the city centre has opened up. The number of students at Parliament has declined, but it should rise again tomorrow.

As I finish this, I have just heard that the decision of the Golkar members of parliament could be softened in the extra-parliamentary forums of Golkar in the next few days. After all, Soeharto is the head of Golkar. The Armed Forces will also have an opportunity to influence the final Golkar position outside the parliamentary members group. The roller-coaster continues on its way.

Jakarta, 21 May 1998

It’s over for Soeharto. At about 0905 this morning he resigned. Thirty-two years in power ended in economic and political chaos and disgrace. It could have been so different.

Vice President Habibie was present and was immediately sworn in as president ‘for the remainder of the current presidential term’ – five years. He is unlikely to last. He too could be swept away by the people’s movement which brought down Soeharto.

With Soeharto gone, a new struggle is emerging between the forces for the political status quo and those who have been shut out of political life by the Soeharto regime. Even within opposition ranks there is no consensus.

The day started with no hint of the historic events to come. The 6 am news was still reporting events of the night before. Yet at 9 pm last night, Soeharto had met the commander of the Armed Forces, General Wiranto on his own and told him of his plan to resign the next morning. Soeharto asked Wiranto for – and received – guarantees about his and his family’s safety.

I drove early to Kebayoran Baru to have breakfast with an Indonesian acquaintance. The Merdeka Square area was still blocked off by the Armed Forces, requiring long detours, but the city was otherwise quiet. There was no suggestion whatsoever of the brief ceremony being prepared at that moment in the Merdeka Palace.

At 9 am a friend rang to tell me that Soeharto was about to give a press conference in Merdeka Palace and to watch TV. At first we thought Soeharto would announce the composition of the ‘Reform Committee’ promised in his Tuesday announcement, but the presence of Supreme Court judges suggested more. His daughter, Tutut, was present.

Soeharto briefly explained that he had failed to put together a satisfactory ‘Reform Committee’. Nor could he reshuffle his cabinet as promised. In the light of this failure, he was retiring forthwith. Habibie was sworn in as president immediately. In ten minutes the ceremony was over. Soeharto drove from Merdeka Palace with his daughter in a private vehicle.

After Soeharto and Habibie had left, Wiranto spoke to say that the Armed Forces were solidly united. They would defend the new president and protect the dignity of Soeharto and his family.

I went immediately to the Parliament building. Early in the morning there were many fewer students than on Wednesday, but the numbers grew during the day. Most of the arrivals were from the general public.

The immediate reaction of the students was joy. The flag, which had been flying at half-mast since their occupation began on 18 May, was raised. The soldiers who had been humourless on previous days chatted and smiled. An enormous burden had been lifted.

From late morning, the general public began streaming into the precincts to show their support. A constant flow of cars and trucks brought food and drink for those in the precincts. Family groups arrived. Grandfathers and grandmothers brought their grandchildren. They wanted to be photographed against the backdrop of the protest movement of the past four days.

One man said that he had brought his very young grandson so that he could see the movement which had made this day possible. He wanted his grandson to remember the day and the place always.

Now that Soeharto has gone, the protest movement is turning to broader issues of reform. There is overwhelming opposition to Habibie among the students. They are beginning to call for sweeping reform of parliament and the dissolution of the government party, Golkar. They are also demanding that Soeharto be brought to trial and the family’s wealth returned to Indonesia. They were supported today by a string of speakers from the older generation. These demands will grow.

Consistent with the 1945 Constitution, Habibie can rule for the remainder of Soeharto’s term, that is until March 2003. Wiranto has said that he will protect the constitutionally appointed president. In a discussion with a senior Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) figure very early this morning, Wiranto even suggested that Habibie could rule for the full five years if his cabinet choices and reform program receive wide support.

The NU bitterly opposes Habibie and wants him to be president on a transitional basis only for the next six months or so while new elections are prepared. The NU’s political strategist told me this morning that a key point of Soeharto’s transition plan of 19 May, which Gus Dur endorsed, was avoidance of a Habibie presidency. Soeharto made this point publicly on 19 May, saying that a Habibie presidency could lead even to civil war. Today Habibie is president. ‘Soeharto lied to us’, he said.
Megawati’s strategist told me this morning that the Indonesia Democracy Party (PDI) of Megawati also opposes Habibie.
Amien Rais, whose attitude towards Habibie has always been equivocal, says he will wait to see his choices for the new cabinet. He could easily turn on Habibie.

Habibie must also quickly find a way – if he can – to neutralize the image of him as corrupt, nepotistic and a lackey of Soeharto. The protest movement will begin to focus on these aspects as they look to the future. Habibie has not helped himself with fulsome praise for Soeharto in his first address to the nation tonight.

On balance, there is little likelihood that he can survive any length of time. He is likely to be only a transitional president while a battle looms between those who want total political reform and those who want to preserve as much as possible of the status quo.

The succession of Habibie today is part of a strategy being pursued by key figures in the regime, including the parliamentary leadership and the Armed Forces, to effect minimal political change. The hope is that with changing just Soeharto the opposition will be satisfied. This is a completely futile hope, which ignores the power of the protest movement.

The present parliament does not include any representatives of Megawati’s PDI. There are no members from the unofficial democracy groups which have sprung up in the last few years, such as the Indonesia Unity Democracy Party (PUDI). Its leader is in gaol, but there are banners at Parliament calling for his release. The NU does not have any direct representation in parliament.

The 425 ‘elected’ members of parliament want to maintain their perks and power. They are the creation of the Soeharto regime and its political repression and manipulation. They are totally unrepresentative. Comprehensive reform would sweep most of them out of office. Their prominence in calling for Soeharto to resign reflects no more than an effort to save their own skins. The students know this and today the thrust of activity began to shift to demanding the abolition of Golkar and reform of parliament and the MPR.

Comprehensive reform is inevitable. We will see major changes to the membership of parliament and the MPR, new political parties, and in all likelihood a new president. I expect that strong pressure will develop for fresh elections as soon as possible.

There are several constitutional barriers in the way of elections before those scheduled for 2002. For example, only the MPR can decide on early elections.

The people’s movement which toppled Soeharto today and major forces like the NU and Megawati’s PDI will not be satisfied with less than comprehensive political reform and early elections. If Habibie and his new cabinet cannot make rapid progress with reform, the demonstrations and destabilization will quickly resume and intensify.

For the time being, however, the mood has lightened. A huge burden is gone.

An activist I met at Parliament called me tonight to say that entertainment places are opening and to invite me to celebrate with his friends. Our mainly Chinese building is stopping the ‘area security system’ so we will not have guard duty from tonight. There will no longer be wake up calls at 2 am to man the barricades. What remains of the money collected by the residents to pay for soldiers to guard the building is to be spent on a party.

Today, however, is merely the end of Act I in the drama of remaking the politics of Indonesia. There is still much to be done before the political crisis is over. For the time being, there is some confusion about what precisely to do next. So much effort was focused on removing Soeharto that his sudden departure has caught the opposition unawares. The opposition will, however, quickly regroup and resume the struggle for comprehensive reform.

First thoughts on Habibie’s ‘Reform Development Cabinet’, 22 May 1998

The most conspicuous cronies and incompetents of the previous cabinet are gone, but my initial impression of the new cabinet is that there are insufficient changes and no genuine opposition figures capable of winning wide support.

The coordinating ministers are unchanged, in particular General Feisal Tanjung and Ginandjar Kartasasmita. They will not reassure the public. Some of those who stay are positives – Ali Alatas as foreign minister and Kuntoro as minister for Mines.
Habibie is relying heavily on colleagues from the Association of Indonesian Islamic Intellectuals (ICMI) which he led until March. Adi Sasono, the secretary general of ICMI, has come into the cabinet. Amien Rais asked this of Habibie in March.

Most striking is the rewarding of one vice-speaker of parliament key to the collapse of Soeharto. Lieutenant General Syarwan Hamid from the Armed Forces faction becomes minister for Internal Affairs.

With Harmoko, Syarwan Hamid was critical to the call late on 18 May for Soeharto to resign immediately. This call gave fresh impetus to the protest movement and sank Soeharto’s transition plan. The immediate beneficiary was Habibie.

General Wiranto remains as minister of Defence and commander of the Armed Forces, but major changes are expected in the very near future in the senior ranks of the Armed Forces. Interestingly, Wiranto promptly called the actions of Harmoko and Syarwan Hamid on 19 May unconstitutional. Today Wiranto and Syarwan Hamid are cabinet colleagues.

My sense is that the cabinet will not hang together and will be widely criticized. Already Amien Rais has reacted coolly.

More will follow tonight. I’m going to Parliament to see if there is any reaction there.

Jakarta, 22 May 1998, 2300 hours

Today was meant to be an opportunity for me to analyse the new cabinet and think about and draw out themes from the events of the past week. I thought I would go briefly to the Parliament to see what remained of the student protest. Friends suggested that the numbers were falling. I would be there briefly. It was not to be.

I got to the Parliament about 1 pm. It was Friday so I decided to go to the mosque, as the Friday prayers would be ending.

I was sitting on the grass when suddenly crowds surged from the mosque. They were mainly young, under the leadership of their teachers and kyai. They were kampungan – simple rural and semi-rural students from the Muslim education system. They and their teachers and clergy are ardently sectarian, and many support an Islamic state in Indonesia. They came from across Jakarta and its outskirts, and from further afield in West Java from places like Banten. They numbered probably around 5,000.

The Muslims formed into groups behind pro-Habibie banners with messages like

‘Those Who Oppose Habibie Will Confront The Muslim Ummat (Community) and ABRI’
‘Give B.J. Habibie A Chance’

They wore headbands proclaiming ‘Constitutional Reform’ to distinguish them from the non-sectarian student protestors who wear headbands proclaiming ‘Peaceful Reform’.

Once formed into a procession they moved off from the mosque to confront the students, who were still calling for the dismissal of Habibie. The student banners included:

‘Soeharto and Habibie One Packet – Get Rid Of Them Both’.

As the Muslims moved into the front courtyard of the Parliament, they repeatedly sang Muslim religious songs and yelled, ‘God is Great!’ The students sang the national anthem and songs of the 1945 revolution like ‘Hallo, Hallo, Bandung’.

Scuffles broke out now and then where the Muslim and student lines came too close together. For the next four hours a very dangerous situation developed as the Muslims steadily pushed to take over the Parliament buildings from the students.

The students fell back. The Muslims charged the ceremonial stairs and occupied them. The students were angry and grim-faced. At one stage during the afternoon, the Muslims looked as if they could take over at least the main Plenary Hall building. Many wanted to fight. For the first time, I was afraid. Without the discipline and self-control displayed by the students, there would have been bloodshed today.

At 2.45 pm, the Muslims were called to prayer, and virtually all left the ceremonial stairway and the front courtyard. The students did not rush immediately to fill the areas which had once been theirs, in the interests of not provoking the Muslims should they return.

After 45 minutes, however, the Muslims were still at the mosque and eating. The students retook the lost ground. They were supported by a stream of Jakartans coming to offer solidarity and swelling their numbers. By 6 pm tonight, there were more students and their supporters in the Parliament precincts than yesterday. The students were back in control. The struggle is not over, however. The students expect more trouble.

Today’s events raise serious questions about the methods and basic values of the Habibie regime. The Muslims were transported to the Parliament from around Jakarta and West Java in an operation which required at least 24 hours’ preparation. Many observers insisted that they had arrived between 10 and 11 am with military escorts.

Of greatest concern is the divisive use of sectarian Islam to break the students within hours of Habibie’s swearing in. This tactic is highly dangerous because it undermines key nationalist principles which since independence have sustained and nurtured national unity in multi-religious, multi-ethnic Indonesia.

Many of those who came to the Parliament to support the students gathered in groups to discuss the sectarian invasion. They universally condemned the aggressive display of sectarian, exclusivist Islam and the implicit expectation that Habibie, Indonesia’s first ‘genuine’ Muslim president, would at last establish a genuinely Islamic Indonesia.

The students and their non-sectarian supporters responded with nationalist songs and symbols. They paraded the state emblem with its motto ‘Unity in Diversity’. They read out the Pancasila, the non-sectarian basis of the Indonesian state since independence.

Today’s stand-off played out a fear about the stability of the Indonesian state which has hung over Indonesia from the very beginnings of independence (see Historical Background). It raises questions about the future stability of Indonesia and the Habibie regime’s capacity to maintain the integrity of the state.

It may be that the threat of bloodshed and the bitter confrontation led the secular nationalists there today to exaggerate the significance of today’s events. It was so tense at one point, as the national anthem competed with the singing of Muslim songs, that I had tears in my eyes. Like the older Indonesians with me between the student and Muslim lines, I could see that something was happening which could tear Indonesia apart if it was not stopped.

Like Hatta fifty-three years ago, a man from Flores wondered how long non-Muslim Eastern Indonesia would stay within the Republic. Would East Timorese feel more compelled than ever by the present chaos to attempt to secede?

Many of the nationalist secularists arriving to support the students said that they too were Muslims but wanted a non-sectarian Indonesia able to accommodate all Indonesians of whatever faith. They described the Muslim zealots and their teachers there today as wanting to impose their values on all Indonesians.
During the afternoon several expressed the fear that a swing to a more overtly Islamic Indonesia under a Habibie presidency could unleash a wave of religious violence which could reduce Indonesia to a Bosnia.

In proposing his failed transition plan on 19 May, Soeharto specifically ruled out the succession of Habibie as ultimately risking ‘civil war’. Tonight, we saw for a moment the risk that Soeharto foreshadowed. I am increasingly sensing that Habibie and his supporters had been working for some time to get him into the presidency. Soeharto saw the risks, but he has now left Indonesia to them to manage.

Tonight, in another roller-coaster ride, we have moved from the jubilation of yesterday to trepidation. Today, we all were shaking our heads and saying, ‘Pity Indonesia’. Tomorrow it may be worse. There are reports as I finish for the night that the Armed Forces will retake the Parliament very early tomorrow morning.

Jakarta, 25 May 1998

From late on Friday 22 May through the weekend, both Habibie and Wiranto faced challenges which seem to have left both weakened. Below the still turbulent surface, the political map of Indonesia is being reshaped. As politics are progressively liberated from the New Order straitjacket, civilian politics will set the pace. General elections are now likely before too long. Islam will assume a dominant place consistent with its numbers in society. ABRI’s role in politics will decline.

The Armed Forces (ABRI) cleared Parliament very early on Saturday morning in a peaceful operation. The weekend was therefore meant to be a time for calmer analysis and clarifying the momentous events of the past two weeks. Again, it was not to be. New and potentially ominous events and trends continued to emerge.

From Thursday through to Friday night, Lieutenant-General Prabowo, commander of the Army Strategic Reserve (Kostrad) made a play for power in the new Habibie administration. On Thursday 21 May, Prabowo was instructed to reduce the presence of Kostrad troops in the city. Instead, anticipating that this was the prelude to his removal, Prabowo increased their numbers.

The commander of the Armed Forces moved to quickly dismiss Prabowo, who then sought to appeal directly to Habibie. Prabowo’s father telephoned Habibie. His brother, Hasyim Djojohadikusumo, tried to see the president during the afternoon of 21 May.

On the evening of 21 May, Habibie did not stay at his home. There were fears for his safety outside the central area of Merdeka Square and the State and Merdeka Palaces. Since the beginning of the crisis, Wiranto had deployed in this critical area Marines and Air Force Special Forces troops outside the command of the Jakarta Army commander, a supporter of Prabowo. (I was also told that there were even suggestions that Prabowo’s ninja thugs had gone to Habibie’s house.)

Habibie stayed the night of 21 May at the State Guest House in the State and Merdeka Palaces complex. Prabowo came there in the evening with the Commander of the Special Forces (Kopassus), Major General Muchdi, another Prabowo supporter³. Prabowo was in battle fatigues, with a gun in a holster in his belt. He was intercepted by Lieutenant-General (ret’d) Sintong Pandjaitan<&sup4;, whom Habibie had taken in after his retirement from ABRI.

Sintong insisted that Prabowo remove the gun before he saw Habibie. The standoff was tense but Sintong held his ground. Prabowo removed the gun. The import of the key events of the past two momentous weeks will grow in the retelling, but those around the president say that Sintong’s firmness could well have saved Habibie from an unbalanced Prabowo.

With his gun removed, Prabowo saw Habibie. He told the president that he had already put in train the gathering of Muslims at the Parliament the next day to retake the building and restore order. He demanded that he be rewarded for this and the other ‘favours’ he had performed, which had facilitated the rise of Habibie. He railed against Wiranto. At one point he struck the table between them with his commander’s baton. He eventually left a shaken Habibie.

For the next thirty hours Prabowo remained a threat. The Muslims organized by his supporters, including Jimly Ashiddique and Fadli Zon of Prabowo’s Institute of Policy Studies, arrived as scheduled at Parliament on the morning of Friday 22 May. Then ensued the bitter confrontation on the afternoon 22 May, described above.

Preparations were made for the replacement of Prabowo on 22 May, effective immediately. The transfer to Prabowo’s successor, Major General Johny Lumintang, happened sometime in the afternoon of 22 May.

At this point Wiranto faced a crisis, which has deep implications for his own control of ABRI, and the ideological make-up of ABRI and the Indonesian state.

Wiranto replaced Prabowo initially with Major General Johny Lumintang, and he wanted to replace Muchdi with Major General Luhut Pandjaitan. Both are Christians. Kostrad troops rejected their new commander that during Friday night. The issue was having a Christian Commander. Lumintang was replaced by Major General Chaniago fourteen hours later on 23 May. Luhut Pandjaitan never took control of Kopassus.

Among those urging Wiranto and Habibie to halt or reverse these appointments was A.H. Nasution, Armed Forces commander in 1965 at the time of the coup, still an influence despite his age, and a Muslim.

The sole reason for this crisis was the religion of Pandjaitan and Lumintang. Wiranto has been stopped on grounds of religion from appointing people of ability he could trust. Muchdi is meant to be replaced today 25 May by a Muslim officer. He and Prabowo may be implicated in the Armed Forces report on the Trisakti University killings which is due out this afternoon.
Wiranto still must remove the Jakarta garrison commander, Major-General Syafrie Syamsuddin, a supporter of Prabowo. The chief of staff of the Army, Soebagyo, is also a potential challenger. He has links to Amien Rais.

Wiranto also failed to have Feisal Tanjung removed as coordinating minister for Political and Security Affairs, which he asked of Habibie as part of his price for supporting the new president and guaranteeing the safety and dignity of Soeharto.

The initial impression on 22 May that Wiranto was in a powerful position has not been borne out by events. Prabowo is gone for now, but ABRI is beginning to look divided and sectarian. ABRI has been the defender of the non-sectarian state philosophies of Pancasila and ‘Unity in Diversity’ but they look less solid now. Concurrent developments in civilian politics will accelerate the growth of sectarianism inside ABRI. Wiranto is on the wrong side of this trend.

We are also beginning to witness an explosion of civilian politics as the shackles of the New Order are removed. It is respectable for the first time in forty years to be ‘opposition’. The political ambitions of key players are being played out openly as they manoeuver for power in the new political system to be constructed in the coming months. Below the surface, deep ethnic, cultural and religious forces kept in check by Soeharto are stirring.

Today, about fifteen political prisoners are to be released from Cipinang prison. Students are already at the prison waiting to greet those released. Among them will be Sri Bintang Pamungkas, a leader of the young on the secular Muslim side of politics. Also likely to be released is Mukhtar Pakpahan, the leader of the (once) illegal independent labour movement. His release is sure to stimulate industrial militancy.

This newfound political freedom will have an impact beyond the political elite and down to the grassroots of society, long cut off from political activity. The main beneficiary will be the Islamic side of politics. Thirty years of New Order religious policy has created a majority of Muslim believers through state promotion of religion, the building of mosques and religious schools, and the requirement to practice a faith. These changes have shifted the aliran (sectarian) balance in Java towards Islam and away from religio-cultural diversity. This fundamental shift is now playing out in the military, and it will be the main influence on civilian – and military – politics.

It is not surprising, therefore, that Amien Rais is pushing hard for early general elections. Riding this aliran shift, he could emerge from elections a strong presidential candidate to replace Habibie on the back of an overwhelming vote for the Muslim side of politics. He has announced the formation of a reasonably diverse committee to push ahead with the sweeping political and electoral reforms essential to genuine elections. He has done so because he does not expect the present parliament, a creation of the New Order, to do the job. Habibie is said to have given his blessing.

Only splits on the Muslim side of politics could blunt the emergence of a clear Muslim majority in fresh elections. Indonesia’s largest Muslim organization, the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) of Gus Dur, has been a bitter opponent of Habibie, and of Amien Rais and his Muhammadiyah organization. Habibie’s cabinet excluded the NU, but the differences may mean less than they used to in an unrestrained general election campaign later in the year. Amien Rais is very popular, while the NU is already weaker because Gus Dur is seriously ill.

The secular nationalist constituency of Megawati Soekarnoputri has also been excluded from Habibie’s cabinet. The one Indonesia Democracy Party (PDI) member is from the disgraced Soeryadi wing of the PDI. Megawati remains a force in a general election, but could not win against a sectarian tide.

Habibie himself, Wiranto, the speaker of parliament, Harmoko, and the ABRI faction vice speaker, Syarwan Hamid, hoped that the replacement of Soeharto with Habibie would, with Armed Forces backing, be sufficient to satisfy public opinion. They and Habibie hoped that Habibie could last the remainder of Soeharto’s term until 2003. That hope has been dashed, and Habibie should be out of the presidency within a year once a new president is elected on the basis of fresh elections.
The call of Amien Rais for elections is one factor undermining Habibie. Another is the call of Ginandjar Kartasasmita for elections on behalf of the economics ministers, who have begun to caucus as a group. Such openness was impossible a week ago.

In essence, however, Habibie cannot stand against the emerging resurgence of free political activity. A wide coalition of diverse interests will sweep away the figures and policies of the New Order – Habibie, Harmoko and the present parliament. Much more still may change. As Indonesians face an entirely new political environment today, there is much uncertainty.
During the past two weeks of political crisis, there has been no time to focus on the economy. As politics settle into new patterns, business, government and politicians (a new term for Indonesia) must also focus on the economy.

The economy is in dire straits. It is predicted to shrink by 10 per cent this year. Indonesia’s largest private bank is in serious trouble today. The private sector is in tatters. Government must work out a strategy to handle demands for expropriation of Soeharto family assets. The United States and the IMF must be more accommodating as Indonesia struggles to create new political structures.

Habibie may be only a transitional president, but he has some enormous political and economic tasks before him in the next six to twelve months. If the transition to a new president is to be successful, Habibie needs to be given a chance.

Jakarta, 27 May 1998

The explosion of free political expression continues. The reform movement is spreading into the business world, targeting corruption and nepotism and promising a level playing field and transparency. President Habibie is riding the reform tsunami at the moment. Even if he loses the presidency, history may well remember him as a liberator.

A thousand different viewpoints are emerging, which will complicate the political transition. There is no sign of consensus, only posturing. There is no timetable yet for political reform and elections. The Armed Forces (ABRI) are weaker in the face of both their own internal divisions and this flowering of free expression and the determination to right old wrongs.

The economy is in an extremely serious situation, but it is politics which has so far dominated elite discourse. Failure to achieve quick progress will open up opportunities for derailing reform.

So much is beginning to happen on the political scene that it is becoming impossible to follow let alone absorb it all. The media has been liberated, and is full each day of frank analysis and accounts of opposition opinion. Official positions are challenged and criticized.

The president is no longer an aloof Javanese king. On 26 May Habibie toured the worst affected areas of Jakarta around where I live. He listened to the traders. He later received the victorious Indonesian badminton team. (Thank heavens Indonesia won the Thomas Cup!)

Habibie’s accessibility is so unfamiliar that Kompas today published what one businessman said to him during his tour of the worst affected areas. The event may well have been staged, but it is worth recording what the front page of Kompas reports him as saying to the president:

Several Habibie ministers are being openly criticized. An NGO has called for the resignation of the Environment minister because he is from the Soeryadi wing of the PDI. Students demonstrated at the Regional Assembly in West Sumatra on 26 May against the appointment of the West Sumatra Governor, Hasan Basri Duri, to the cabinet. The Regional Assembly joined them in calling for his dismissal. The latter would have been impossible a week ago.

Habibie’s instincts seem to be to accept the pressure for sweeping change, even if it sweeps him from office in due course. His reward could be the reputation in history of a liberator.

The legal framework of Indonesian political life must be rebuilt in a matter of months. New political parties will spring up. There could be tens of parties.

Decisions must be made about the nature of the now-inevitable general elections. Will there be district voting as some urge? That would bring local leaders into the heart of representational government for the first time, with the potential to supplant the political elite. Will voting be ‘first past the post’? Or proportional representation? The answers could reshape Indonesian politics, but I sense that unfamiliarity with the forms and the tight timeframe will mean that many issues will be not be thoroughly examined.

This flowering of political debate could wilt as lengthening debate without results widens rather than narrows differences. Is consensus possible in such a splintering political scene? Tonight it is beginning to look as if civilian politics could fail to agree on a program of reform. There is still no clear indication of a date for elections. Without a deadline, the debate could simply drag on.

Political liberation is extending the fervour for reform into the business scene. Jakarta City Water workers have blown the whistle on the two companies related to Soeharto’s eldest son and to the son of Liem Sioe Liong, which were granted the right this year to redevelop the city’s water supply. The contracts are to be reopened. Private power contracts will be reopened. Pertamina is taking over the distribution of its products formerly carried out by Soeharto family companies at a substantial profit. Tax concessions to people like Bob Hasan are being reviewed. And much, much more as reform takes hold.

Corruption in the justice system is beginning to be exposed. Judges involved in the gaoling of political prisoners are being named.

In an environment of a free and fearless press and continuing reform fervour, officials will be afraid to interfere in or seek to benefit from commercial decision-making. We may be seeing the beginnings of a more level playing field in business.

ABRI cannot stand against this tide of reform, even if its leadership wanted to. It is deeply divided, with no news yet of the removal of senior supporters of Prabowo, expected last weekend. Nor is there any detail yet on the identity of those involved in the killing of the students at Trisakti University. ABRI for the moment is being swept along by the reform movement. The dual function of the Armed Forces, the basis for its dominant involvement in politics in the New Order, could change. Today the governor of ABRI’s senior staff college is reported as saying:

If, however, civilian politics cannot maintain the initiative, there may be an opportunity before too long for a reassertion of ABRI dominance to avert a decline into anarchy.

As the debate about the future shape of politics develops, commentators have focused on my earlier comments on possible trends in Muslim politics. At the level of elite politics, there certainly is a concern to reinforce Pancasila principles and reject SARA (ethnic, religious, race and class) politics. In his visit yesterday to the predominantly Chinese business districts destroyed in the looting and burning of 13 and 14 May, the president said the government would not tolerate any movement exploiting race, class and religion. He reiterated this view in a meeting today with a visiting member of the US House of Representatives.

Some argue that Islamic leaders such as Gus Dur and Amien Rais are tolerant and modernist. They largely are. Amien Rais is gradually emerging as a national, and less of a sectarian, statesman. The argument is that, with such leaders, there will be no effective challenge to the tolerance implicit in the present pillars of the state – the 1945 Constitution and Pancasila.

Others argue that there will be no single Muslim force in Indonesian politics. They argue that, as in the 1950s, Muslim politics will split along socio-ethnic lines. Such a split would prevent the forging of a unified Muslim majority which could otherwise bring about basic changes to society, politics and the state consistent with their numbers in society.

Elite politics are dominant at the moment. The masses and their local religious leaders have been slower to react, but I suspect that they too will want a say. A key issue among many Muslims is that they have felt disenfranchized by the New Order, and perhaps the Soekarno era too. A movement may come from below, urging that society and government directly reflect the values of Islam.

An election campaign, especially one based on districts, could generate such a movement. It would also test what is the majority view in Indonesia, in a way we have not seen since the 1955 elections. I suspect, however, that the results could be quite different from those elections. Society has changed and history may not be a good guide to the future.

Tonight, the euphoria surrounding the liberation of political life is waning somewhat. Hard decisions and concessions are necessary if lasting reform is to emerge. If it doesn’t, the future will become uncertain once again. ABRI might feel compelled to move to restore order. Soeharto might even offer himself again.

In the current explosion of political activity, we are still forgetting the economy. Mari Pangestu today warns of a gloomy outlook: GDP shrinking by 10 to 20 per cent; inflation of between 70 and 100 per cent; a continuing rise in unemployment; and rising poverty wiping out some of the achievements on the welfare front of the past thirty years.

Indonesia needs generous support from the international community, not the tight-fistedness that the IMF and the United States have shown so far.

Postscript, 31 May 1998

Soeharto is gone, after a mere eleven weeks into his seventh term as president. He blames those he trusted most for betraying him – Harmoko, Ginandjar, Syarwan Hamid, Prabowo and his vice president, B.J. Habibie, who is now president. But his own arrogance, isolation and failing judgement also contributed. Indonesia still faces almost overwhelming problems. While political debate rages, the economy worsens. Political freedom is allowing Muslim sectarianism to surface. It is impossible to discern in which direction events may lead. In the best of all worlds, it will take several years to stabilize the political and economic life of Indonesia.

Notes: